Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 4.173347 4.946978 5.805032 6.824592 8.000185 9.310230 10.877606
2025-06-01 2.870693 3.865808 5.095239 6.713236 8.772363 11.289853 14.583198
2025-06-08 2.088130 3.142436 4.571345 6.620070 9.446843 13.169247 18.392686
2025-06-15 1.707936 2.825053 4.461452 6.979109 10.687187 15.866398 23.543401
2025-06-22 1.363543 2.461723 4.188968 7.020509 11.438942 17.935714 28.031015
2025-06-29 1.103174 2.160644 3.936329 7.019549 12.085415 19.879201 32.498397
2025-07-06 0.901498 1.907149 3.702530 6.989933 12.651253 21.723715 36.962136
2025-07-13 0.830415 1.873120 3.831031 7.574308 14.269153 25.352135 44.514826
2025-07-20 0.727917 1.753026 3.778768 7.822845 15.331763 28.165329 50.990604
2025-07-27 0.648582 1.661623 3.761563 8.125050 16.510267 31.263473 58.181275
2025-08-03 0.554115 1.514304 3.605638 8.133137 17.142137 33.462536 64.009415
2025-08-10 0.451828 1.322953 3.322262 7.840347 17.161365 34.561674 67.989926
2025-08-17 0.358827 1.132282 3.010037 7.451184 16.967942 35.298145 71.475643
2025-08-24 0.300855 1.017484 2.849219 7.364103 17.374073 37.198574 77.269823
2025-08-31 0.252587 0.915520 2.698564 7.274652 17.761077 39.093299 83.207604
2025-09-07 0.234048 0.896722 2.752593 7.669309 19.230303 43.241856 93.778105
2025-09-14 0.203334 0.830232 2.668456 7.715875 19.931061 45.893610 101.609816
2025-09-21 0.175483 0.764214 2.571948 7.715381 20.521554 48.362654 109.254713
2025-09-28 0.150808 0.700939 2.469841 7.683366 21.031722 50.699949 116.796701
2025-10-05 0.148071 0.718836 2.611029 8.318788 23.201836 56.759963 132.422116
2025-10-12 0.135491 0.694339 2.618217 8.588895 24.507857 61.033262 144.584997
2025-10-19 0.125464 0.677031 2.644838 8.917197 25.991819 65.809356 158.120234
2025-10-26 0.109779 0.629779 2.564385 8.925984 26.665690 68.814911 168.046684